This article originally appeared in the Washington Blade.
As President Donald Trump begins the second year of his second term, LGBTQ advocacy organizations say they are shifting into a more aggressive posture — armed with new data that shows how quickly hard-won progress is eroding under the Trump-Vance administration.
The Human Rights Campaign hosted its 2026 Election Strategy Kick-Off meeting last week at the National Press Club in Washington, where leaders shared fresh polling data detailing how Trump’s first year back in office has affected LGBTQ Americans — and how pro-equality candidates can respond heading into the midterms.
HRC President Kelley Robinson hosted the event, joined by MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart, Reproductive Freedom For All President Mini Timmaraju, and Joey Teitelbaum of Global Strategy Group. Together, they laid out what they described as a dire political and cultural moment for LGBTQ people — and the concrete steps campaigns must take to counter a surge of anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and policy coming from the GOP.
“The emergency that we warned about is no longer a warning — it is the reality that we are living inside,” Robinson said. “Donald Trump may not have started this fire, but he surely poured gasoline on it.”
New data collected by HRC and Democratic pollsters at Global Strategy Group (GSG) paints a grim picture of life for LGBTQ Americans in Trump-era America — particularly when it comes to visibility, safety, and economic security.
Acceptance and visibility declining
One of the clearest trends from the survey is a decline in perceived acceptance. The data found that 21.6% of all U.S. adults say acceptance of LGBTQ+ people has declined in the past year. Among LGBTQ+ adults themselves, that number jumps to 29.7%.
That erosion of acceptance is translating into tangible changes in behavior. Nearly half of LGBTQ+ adults surveyed — 47.5% — reported being less out in at least one area of their lives over the past 12 months, at least in part due to cultural shifts or executive actions taken by the Trump-Vance administration.
The survey found that 26.5% of LGBTQ+ people are less out at work than they used to be, 25.4% are less out in healthcare settings, and 28.3% feel less out in public spaces. While the choice to be out varies by person and circumstance, researchers note that higher levels of being openly LGBTQ — particularly when safety is assured — have historically been linked to greater societal acceptance.
Visibility is slipping even more broadly. More than half of LGBTQ+ adults — 51.1% — say they are less visible than they were a year ago. Among LGBTQ+ parents with school-aged children, 40.1% reported being less visible at their children’s schools — the highest rate of retreat in any measured environment.
“Nearly half of LGBTQ+ people say they are less out than they were just a year ago,” Robinson said. “Visibility — something we fought generations to build — is slipping before our very eyes.”
Capehart emphasized that these numbers have real-world consequences beyond personal identity.
“Half the community retreating back into the closet is distressing, but understandable in these times,” Capehart said. “The danger is when people disappear from public life, because it becomes easier to ignore their suffering.”
Decades of research from organizations such as Gallup and PRRI have consistently shown that increased visibility correlates with greater public support for LGBTQ+ rights. When people personally know someone who is LGBTQ+, they are significantly more likely to support equality — creating what advocates describe as a positive feedback loop. The new data suggests that loop is now reversing.